Caribbean Stud Poker Odds and Probabilities

Mulenga Chanda
Written byMulenga ChandaWriter

Numerous top online casinos around the globe offer Caribbean Stud Poker as a table game option for their players. There are significant variations between this and standard blackjack, though. Being familiar with Caribbean Stud Poker odds is crucial.

Caribbean Stud Poker's house edge, dealer qualifications, probability theory, and expected value are all topics we'll cover in this fulfilling guide on CasinoRank.

Caribbean Stud Poker Odds and Probabilities

The House Edge at Caribbean Stud Poker

Players planning to play Caribbean Stud Poker should know that the casino has a slight advantage. It's the proportion of money wagered that the casino expects to win. Simply put, it's the casino's inherent edge over the player. Caribbean Stud Poker has a house edge of between 5% and 7%, though this number can vary depending on the venue.

Caribbean Stud Poker has a more significant house edge than other card and table games like blackjack and baccarat. Still, it retains an extensive fan base due to the possibility of winning substantial sums. If a player gets a royal straight, they can earn as much as 100 times their wager.

The Dealer's Qualification in Caribbean Stud Poker

To play their hand, the dealer in Caribbean Stud Poker must first meet specific requirements - at least a hand of Aces and Kings. The player receives a refund of their increased bet and even money on their initial bet if the dealer does meet these requirements. Here are some further requirements:

  • After determining whether the dealer meets the qualifications, the dealer's card is compared to the player's.
  • If a player's hand ranks better than the dealer's, the player receives even money on their initial bet, and the payout chart determines the payoff on their raised stake.
  • The opponent loses the stake and the increase if the dealer has a better hand.

The Probability Theory to Improve Winning Chances

Players can increase their odds of winning at Caribbean Stud Poker by applying concepts from probability theory. A player's ability to increase or surrender in response to a bet depends on his or her knowledge of the odds of various cards.

The Probability of Each Hand

One must first grasp the odds of being handed a specific hand. The odds on Caribbean Stud Poker of being given each hand are listed in the chart below:

  • Royal Flush | 0.00001539
  • Straight Flush | 0.00027851
  • Four of a Kind | 0.00168067
  • Full House | 0.02648571
  • Flush | 0.03025492
  • Straight | 0.00392563
  • Three of a Kind | 0.02112845
  • Two Pair | 0.04753902
  • Pair | 0.42256903
  • Ace-King or Less | 0.50117128

The odds of being given a good hand, such as a royal flush or straight flush, are extremely low, as shown in the chart. However, the likelihood of receiving a poor starting hand, such as Ace-King or lower, is significant.

The second information players need is the odds of successfully bettering their hand. After the ante is called or folded, players may increase the bet or drop out of the hand. To "raise," players must make a new bet double their stake.

The Probability of Improving a Hand

Here's a chart below for an estimate of the chances of success if a player decides to raise:

  • Royal Flush | 0.00007708
  • Straight Flush | 0.00138504
  • Four of a Kind | 0.02405110
  • Full House | 0.14330682
  • Flush | 0.10941454
  • Straight | 0.09000740
  • Three of a Kind | 0.22183547
  • Two Pair | 0.47160319
  • Pair or Less | 0.54296723

If players have a set or less, the odds of winning are quite good. Players can win a hand even if they start with a poor hand by making a better one.

The third consideration is the dealer's likelihood of meeting qualification standards. To qualify, the dealer must have at least Ace-King, as we discussed previously.

Probability of Qualifying for an Upcard

Below is a chart detailing the dealer's odds of scoring given their upcard:

  • Ace | 0.44444444
  • King | 0.44285714
  • Queen | 0.44117647
  • Jack | 0.43846154
  • Ten | 0.43636364
  • Nine | 0.43333333
  • Eight | 0.43023256
  • Seven | 0.42696629
  • Six | 0.42352941
  • Five | 0.41991342
  • Four or Lower | 0.41758242

The dealer's chances of winning are strong, mainly if their upcard is an Ace or King. Since the dealer is likely to have a powerful hand, it may be best to surrender rather than raise if the player has a poor hand.

The Expected Value in Caribbean Stud Poker

In probability theory, a random variable's expected value is its typical outcome. The optimal strategy in Caribbean Stud Poker can be determined by calculating the anticipated value of each possible outcome.

In Caribbean Stud Poker, the anticipated worth of a hand is determined by increasing the payment for the hand by its chance of occurrence. The anticipated value of a flush is 0.06 if the payment is 2:1 and the chance of obtaining a flush is 3%. (2 x 0.03).

Consider the odds of winning and losing and the reward to determine the anticipated worth of choice, like increasing or quitting. The anticipated worth of a raise of 0.2 would be the case if the odds of winning the hand were 40% and the payoff was 3:1. (0.4 x 3).

Based on chance theory, the best choice can be made by determining the anticipated value of each option and picking the one with the greatest value.


Knowing the statistics and possibilities in Caribbean Stud Poker is essential to making good choices and increasing the winning chances. A successful plan can be developed by considering the house edge, dealer qualifying, probability theory, and anticipated value.

About the author
Mulenga Chanda
Mulenga Chanda

Mulenga Chanda, a passionate 32-year-old Zambian, seamlessly merges his enthusiasm for gaming with a profound knowledge of Zambian culture. Specializing in English content localization, he crafts online casino guides that genuinely resonate with the Zambian audience.

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More posts by Mulenga Chanda

What are my odds of obtaining a flush when playing Caribbean Stud Poker?

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